CAPIS Morning Note – 01/20/22: Can A Rally Last Beyond 10:00 a.m. EST This Week?

Overnight Summary: Asia saw China lower and Japan higher. China cut its one year and five year loan prime rates. Europe is struggling as Germany’s PPI rose at 5% crushing expectations of 0.8%. S&P 500 Futures hit a low around 6:30 p.m. EST  at 4514 and have been climbing since to where they are now…

Overnight Summary: Asia saw China lower and Japan higher. China cut its one year and five year loan prime rates. Europe is struggling as Germany’s PPI rose at 5% crushing expectations of 0.8%. S&P 500 Futures hit a low around 6:30 p.m. EST  at 4514 and have been climbing since to where they are now up to 4550 and at +20 at 7:00 a.m. EST.

Chart of Week: Below is a 5 minute chart on SPY the last four trading days. The trend is obvious. Positive start and then fall apart. Can we break that trend?

Earnings Out After The Close:

  • Beats: AA +0.51, UAL +0.49, STL +0.14, PACW +0.13, WTFC +0.04, FUL +0.01, KMI +0.01
  • Flat: FNB
  • Misses: DFS (0.04), UMPQ (0.02)

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
  • New SPACs launched: None of note.
  • Secondaries Priced:
    • EVA: Prices offering of 4.3 million shares at $70.00 per share
    • AMH: Prices offering of 20 million shares for $783 million in gross proceeds.
  • Notes Priced of note: BLDR of note.
  • Common Stock filings/Notes: None of note.
    • AMH: Public Offering of 20 million shares.
    • EVA: Public Offering of 4.3 million shares.
  • Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
  • Direct Offering: None of note.
  • Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
  • Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings: VINC of note.
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.
  • Note Offerings Filed: SAR of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

  • After Hours: 
    • Trading Up: SEM +4% 
    • Trading Down:  EVA -6% AMH -4% MCRB -4% DFS -3% 
  • News Items After The Close:
    • Encompass Health (EHC) to spinoff  its home health and hospice business to form new company.
    • President Biden held a press conference at 4:00 p.m. EST to review first year in office. Blames Federal Reserve on inflation and says they will fix.
    • Greif (GEF) raises prices $50 a ton on uncoated recycled paperboard and a 6% increase on all tube and core and protective packaging products.
    • Pfizer (PFE) wins $2.05 billion Army contract for more doses of Covid-19 vaccine.
    • Positive Guidance: AA WNS 
    • Negative Guidance: UAL AAL
  • Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News: 
    • National Retail Properties (NNN) CEO Julian Whitehurst to retire on 4/28.
    • Circor (CIR) President and CEO steps down, the Aerospace & Defense Group President named COO and interim CEO,
  • Buyback Announcements:
    • BHLB approves a $140 million share repurchase program.
  • Stock Splits: None of note.
  • Dividends Announcements: 
    • AMTB raises to $0.09 a quarter from $0.06 per share.
    • ENTG raised to $0.10 from $0.08 a share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +16 , Dow Jones +104 , NASDAQ +113 and Russell 2000 +3.52. Asia mixed and Europe mixed. VIX Futures are at 23.40 from 23.05 yesterday morning. Gold and Silver lower  with Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $127.27 from $128.52  yesterday with yields at 1.829% from 1.879% yesterday morning. Bitcoin at $42,067 from  $42,140 yesterday morning and +0.89%. As of 8:00 a.m. EST.

Wednesday’s Action – 01/19 Close:  

  • Daily Positive Sectors:
  • Daily Negative Sectors:
  • One Month Winners: Energy, Financials and Basic Materials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Consumer Defensive and Energy of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Energy, Financials and Technology of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Real Estate, and Financials of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Energy, Financials and Basic Materials of note.

Indexes again pullback led to the downside by Technology and small cap stocks.  GLD was up 1.59% and SLV up 3.14%  Updated 01/19/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Thursday After the Close: NFLX, ISRG, CSX, SIVB, PPG, WAL, PBCT, OZK, ASB, TCBI, EDU, NBHC, LLNW.
  • Friday Before the Open: INFO, SLB, HBAN, ALLY, FHB.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats:  BKU +0.54 SNV +0.27 WBS +0.12 FHN +0.11 MTB +0.11 KEY +0.8 AAL +0.6 PPBI +0.05 WNS +0.05
  • Flat: 
  • Misses: RF -0.07 BKR -0.04 SASR -0.01
  • Still to Report:  

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 01/19/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

  • Gap Up: MCRB +9%, SEMR +4%, NVAX +3%, ARGX +3%
  • Gap Down: WTFC -6%, AMH -4%, RF -4%, ZYME -4%, EHC -3%

Insider Action: SAFE sees Insider buying with dumb short selling and SFIX has smart short sellers with insider buys. ABSI sees heavy shorts with no short selling history. 01/19/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”.

  • Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: TRV AAL SIG. (CNBC)
  • 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Covid-19 Cases fall to 930,765 from 1.406,530 cases yet Hospitalizations rise to 142,595 from 119,115. (CDC)
  • People’s Bank of China (PBOC) cut 1 and 5 year loan prime rates.
  • President Biden expects Russia to “move into” Ukraine and would be a NATO discussion if a “minor incursion”. (CNN)
  • President Biden says can still do Build Back Better but Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) says has not talked to White House and several more Democrats will not support. (Bloomberg)
  • Senate fails in vote to change filibuster rules for a single issue, Voting Rights Bill.
  • Amazon (AMZN) introduces first ever physical apparel store.
  • Beyond Meat (BYND) and Pepsi (PEP) to introduce vegan jerky snack. (Bloomberg)
  • Chesapeake Energy (CHK) may bid for Chief Oil and Gas for $2.4 billion. (Reuters)
  • Marriott (MAR) announced a strong 2021 for rooms growth and signings for 92,000 more rooms.
  • Lufkin Coffee may relist in the U.S. (FT)
  • Robinhood Snacks looks at free test for Covid-19. AT&T (T) and Verizon (VZ) launch 5G

Moving Average Update:

  • Score remains at 12%. Updated 01/19/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

  • President’s Public Schedule:
    • President Biden receives the Daily Briefing at 9:30 a.m. EST.
    • President Biden and Vice President Harris meet with Infrastructure Implementation Task Force at 11:15 a.m. EST.
    • President Biden meets with President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology at 4:15 p.m. EST.
    • Both the President and Vice President speak at a Democratic National Committee event at 7:00 p.m. EST.

Economic: 

  • January Philadelphia Fed Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to rise to 20 from 15.40.
  • December Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to 6,420,000 from 6,460,000.
  • Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST.
  • Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.
  • Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 11:00 a.m. EST.

Federal Reserve Speakers:

  • None  of note.

M&A Activity: 

  • None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:   None of note.
  • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
      • CIBC Western Institutional Conference, Sidoti Small Cap Winter Conference and Santander Latin America Conference
  • Company Meetings: CYTR COST INTU JBL VTNR
  • Fireside Chat: MLSS  of note.
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ASLN BBLR CRSR CONN PBIO
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • Company Event: None of note.
  • Industry Meetings: American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium
      • Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
        • None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

         

Wednesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades: