CAPIS Global Recap – 5/29/2019
Asian Headlines After the disappointing finish in the States Asia closed mixed with a bias towards losses. Like in the US, defensives saw selling with Consumer Staples and Utilities weighing on the Nikkei with Australia adding Industrials and Discretionary names to that list. Shanghai managed a small gain with Staples conversely leading higher along with…
Asian Headlines
After the disappointing finish in the States Asia closed mixed with a bias towards losses. Like in the US, defensives saw selling with Consumer Staples and Utilities weighing on the Nikkei with Australia adding Industrials and Discretionary names to that list. Shanghai managed a small gain with Staples conversely leading higher along with semiconductor-related names. Rare-earth names rallied with China threatening to cut the US off from supplies. Semis fell elsewhere. Bonds globally are bid higher after the US 10 year yield fell to levels not seen since September of 2017. Post his trip to Japan, President Trump said higher tariffs may still be on tap.
The PBoC continued to inject funds, this time ~$36B, hoping to sooth minds. Market confidence continues to wane with concern after the gov took control of Baoshang Bank. The Yuan continued to weaken despite the US calling the country a currency manipulator in the Semiannual Currency Report issued by the US Treasury. Vietnam, Malaysia, Italy, and Ireland though were added to a watch list while India and Switzerland were removed. Taiwan saw overseas investors continue selling, 15 straight sessions now with state-owned brokers on their 14th day of acquisitions.
Despite the selling the Nikkei a though remains well within recent ranges, again plumbing the support levels seen over the last year. 
while Australia’s ASX200 works to get back to 2007 level highs with the AUD continue to weaken:
European Headlines
Indices opened lower and trailed off from there with indices trying to rebound somewhat. All sectors are to the downside with Basic Resources off over 2% with Arcelor Mittal weighing today. Tech names are also weaker with sizable losses from Ericsson and AMS. You will see that German employment ticked higher in May, up 60k after losing 12k prior, its 1st increase in ~2 years. Their labor Agency though said an adjustment in data was the reason. French GDP YoY growth was inched up to 1.2% with Swedish GDP to 2.1%, ahead of expectations. Note that Sweden closed at lunch today.
Arcelor Mittal -4.6% continues to collapse after announcing they will cut steelmaking production in France and Germany. Weak demand was cited with higher iron ore prices no doubt to cut into profits soon.
Both Nokia and Ericsson are off 4.2% and 2.4% respectively despite Softbank naming them as Primary 5G partners.
To the upside Elekta +19% beat on 4Q #’s and expected FY20 ebita margins at 19%.
Also the upside ProSiebenSat is better by 3.7% with Mediaset -.5% taking a stake. BB reports Mediaset used options to acquire the stake with the structure preventing the firm from having to register the stake purchases.
British American Tobacco -3.6% and Swedish Match -3% continue to weaken after industry data yesterday showed weaker volumes.
Note that tomorrow several countries including Denmark and Switzerland will be shut for Ascension Day.
| Event | Survey | Actual | Prior | Revised | |||
| SK | 32) | Business Survey Manufacturing | Jun | — | 75 | 77 | — |
| SK | 33) | Business Survey Non-Manufacturing | Jun | — | 72 | 77 | — |
| UK | 34) | BRC Shop Price Index YoY | May | — | 0.80% | 0.40% | — |
| NE | 35) | Producer Confidence Index | May | — | 4.7 | 6.7 | — |
| FI | 36) | GDP QoQ | 1Q | 0.50% | 0.20% | 0.70% | 0.50% |
| FI | 37) | GDP WDA YoY | 1Q | — | 1.20% | 2.20% | — |
| DE | 38) | GDP SA QoQ | 1Q P | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.80% | 0.90% |
| DE | 39) | GDP SA YoY | 1Q P | — | 2.20% | 2.60% | — |
| DE | 40) | Unemployment Rate Gross Rate | Apr | — | 3.70% | 3.70% | — |
| DE | 41) | Unemployment Rate SA | Apr | — | 3.10% | 3.10% | — |
| NO | 42) | Retail Sales W/Auto Fuel MoM | Apr | 0.30% | 1.80% | 0.60% | 0.70% |
| NO | 43) | Credit Indicator Growth YoY | Apr | 5.80% | 5.70% | 5.80% | — |
| FR | 44) | PPI MoM | Apr | — | -0.60% | 0.00% | — |
| FR | 45) | PPI YoY | Apr | — | 2.20% | 1.90% | 2.00% |
| FR | 46) | Consumer Spending MoM | Apr | 0.40% | 0.80% | -0.10% | -0.30% |
| FR | 47) | Consumer Spending YoY | Apr | 0.60% | 1.20% | -1.90% | -2.20% |
| FR | 48) | CPI EU Harmonized MoM | May P | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.40% | — |
| FR | 49) | CPI EU Harmonized YoY | May P | 1.20% | 1.10% | 1.50% | — |
| FR | 50) | CPI MoM | May P | 0.30% | 0.20% | 0.30% | — |
| FR | 51) | CPI YoY | May P | 1.10% | 1.00% | 1.30% | — |
| FR | 52) | GDP QoQ | 1Q F | 0.30% | 0.30% | 0.30% | — |
| FR | 53) | GDP YoY | 1Q F | 1.10% | 1.20% | 1.10% | — |
| AS | 54) | PPI MoM | Apr | — | 0.20% | -0.10% | — |
| AS | 55) | PPI YoY | Apr | — | 1.40% | 1.50% | — |
| SP | 56) | Total Mortgage Lending YoY | Mar | — | 23.20% | 31.20% | — |
| SP | 57) | House Mortgage Approvals YoY | Mar | — | 15.80% | 9.20% | — |
| SZ | 58) | KOF Leading Indicator | May | 96 | 94.4 | 96.2 | — |
| AS | 59) | GDP SA QoQ | 1Q F | — | 0.40% | 0.30% | — |
| AS | 60) | GDP NSA YoY | 1Q F | — | 1.40% | 1.10% | — |
| SW | 61) | Wages Non-Manual Workers YoY | Mar | — | 2.50% | 2.40% | — |
| SW | 62) | GDP QoQ | 1Q | 0.20% | 0.60% | 1.20% | — |
| SW | 63) | GDP WDA YoY | 1Q | 1.70% | 2.10% | 2.40% | — |
| GE | 64) | Unemployment Change (000’s) | May | -7.5k | 60.0k | -12.0k | — |
| GE | 65) | Unemployment Claims Rate SA | May | 4.90% | 5.00% | 4.90% | — |
| IT | 66) | Consumer Confidence Index | May | 110 | 111.8 | 110.5 | 110.6 |
| IT | 67) | Manufacturing Confidence | May | 100.4 | 102 | 100.6 | 100.8 |
| IT | 68) | Economic Sentiment | May | — | 100.2 | 98.7 | 98.8 |
| SZ | 69) | Credit Suisse Survey Expectations | May | — | -14.3 | -7.7 | — |
| IR | 70) | Retail Sales Volume MoM | Apr | — | 2.10% | -0.80% | -0.60% |
| IR | 71) | Retail Sales Volume YoY | Apr | — | 4.00% | 4.90% | 5.10% |
| BE | 72) | GDP SA QoQ | 1Q F | — | — | 0.20% | — |
| BE | 73) | GDP SA YoY | 1Q F | — | — | 1.10% | — |